I definitely feel the lockout has effected most of the teams in a negative way. Most teams could have used the OTAs and normal training camps to improve their continuity. Let's review each division:
AFC West:
I thought San Diego would run away with this division, but they have been inconsistent. Ryan Matthews hasn't become an elite back which I thought he would have. KC is showing a lot after losing Jamal Charles. Todd Haley and Matt Cassel are showing me last season wasn't a fluke. Oakland is all in after trading for Carson Palmer. Denver should have traded Kyle Orton when they had a chance.
I think Oakland wins the division.
AFC North:
The best division in football. You can make an argument for any of the top 3 teams winning the division. Cincinnati is the surprise of the NFL this season. If it wasn't for Cam Newton, Andy Dalton would have a strong case for rookie of the year. The Steelers still have plenty in tank and Big Ben is in the prime of his career. I'm not sold on Baltimore. Joe Flacco has to show he can win games.
Pittsburgh win the division.
AFC South:
I thought the Houston Texans would run away with this division, but with the loss of Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, they are still in first place. I am really surprised how bad the Colts are without Peyton Manning. I thought they would win a few games, but it looks like they don't care. All the talk is if they get the first pick in the next draft, what do they? Andrew Luck or trade Peyton Manning? Tennessee has surprised me, but when its all said and done, I see them as 500 team.
Houston wins the division.
AFC East:
Very competitive division, at least 3 teams are. Buffalo has been a tremendous surprise, but I keep waiting for them to come back to earth. The Patriots have the most potent offense, but a below average defense and the Jets are just muddled in inconsistency. It's time for one of these three teams to step and win this division. Just not sure who will do it.
Jets win the division.
NFC West: San Fran is the class of the division and probably the second best team in the conference. I am surprised the Rams haven't been better. I really thought they would have a solid defense and Sam Bradford would step up as a top QB, ala Matt Ryan. I still haven't given up hope on them, but I think it will be next season, not this. Seattle signing Tavaris Jackson makes no sense to me. He was average at best in Minnesota and I think they would have been better off drafting a QB and re-signing Hasselbeck. Arizona will have a new regime next season and it will be interesting how Kolb and Fitzgerald play.
San Fran wins the division
NFC North: Very competitive division, but the Packers are just heads and tails above the rest. The Lions and Bears will be fighting for a wildcard spot and they both might knock each other out. The Lions need to stay healthy if they have any chance of getting into the playoffs. Minnesota has been a huge disappointment for me, I thought Donovan McNabb would resurrect his career, but it looks like he will end it there.
Green Bay wins the division
NFC South: I loved New Orleans before the season started. I thought they had a nice mix of leaders and winners to make a legitimate run, but there are a lot of gapping holes and I am not sure if they are even a playoff team. Atlanta needs to get to their stuff together, lots of potential, but small window to succeed. Tampa is a mystery, after last season's surprising 10-6 record, I don't see an improvement.
Atlanta wins the division
NFC East: The Redskins stink, The Cowboys are overrated and the Giants are a mystery. The Eagles are usually a great second half team. I don't know how this plays out, but it's hard to pick against the Giants, they always find a way to win.
Giants win the division
Power rankings:
1. Green Bay Packers
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. New England Patriots
5. Buffalo Bills
6. Detroit Lions
7. Houston Texans
8. Cincinnati Bengals
9. New Orleans Saints
10. (tie) New York Jets / New York Giants
Last week, once again 2-2, bringing my total to an even 16-16.
New Orleans (-7.5) against Tampa Bay
The Saints will come out and spread things out and see if the Bucs can keep up. I just don't think the Bucs have the weapons or defense to keep it close.
Saints 38 - Bucs 24
Green Bay (-5.5) @ San Diego
It's hard to bet against the Packers, especially with the inconsistency of San Diego. The Chargers will have a corp of injured RBs and if you can't control the ball, the Packers will eat you up.
Packers 31 - Chargers 17
Pittsburgh (-3.5) against Baltimore
After getting blown out in week 1 by Baltimore, I see Pittsburgh returning the favor. Big Ben is hot and I think they pick apart the Ravens Defense. And until I see Joe Flacco win a game, not manage it, I have a hard time believing they are for real
Steelers 28 - Ravens 23
Upset Special
Bills (-1.5) against NY Jets
This isn't a huge upset, except the Bills are undefeated at home. I think the Jets pull this one out and show they are back. I think Sanchez and company controls the tempo and wins.
Jets 19 - Bills 17
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